During the first half of 2024, the art market, particularly the auction sector, experienced a significant decline in sales value, with major works remaining scarce since the beginning of the year.
However, auction house results have demonstrated that art remains a tangible investment, even in times of economic slowdown.
It is important to note that the macroeconomic challenges that affected Europe and the United States in 2023 have persisted into 2024, impacting auction outcomes from the start of the year. For example, the January auctions in New York, focused on Old Masters, reflected this trend. While a Rubens painting fetched nearly $27 million in 2023, January 2024's records were capped at $6 million for Giambologna's bronze sculpture "Sleeping Nymph," offered by Christie's. Despite this decline, the sale price was still remarkable, exceeding the average estimate by five million dollars, indicating sustained demand for rare works.
The subsequent sales of Impressionist, Modern, and Contemporary art reinforced this momentum. The highest auction result of the first quarter went to René Magritte, whose painting "L’Ami intime" fetched $43 million, marking the second-highest sale for the artist. This success highlights the determination of major collectors, despite a temporary scarcity of high-end offerings, a trend observed since 2023.
However, the decline in public sales could paradoxically boost the private market, providing valuable stability during a slowdown while preserving the value of artworks beyond peak periods.
Indeed, while the market for prestigious works shows some signs of stagnation, other sectors remain vibrant. In 2023, the art market reached a historic record with over 760,000 transactions, and the first quarter of 2024, with 155,000 sales, confirms this enthusiasm. One of the driving forces behind this vitality is the growing digitalization of auctions, which, by expanding access and extending auction durations, has attracted a younger clientele. For example, at Phillips, nearly half of the buyers in 2023 were first-time participants, with one-third belonging to the Millennial and Gen Z generations.
Art market figures for the first half of 2024
The Women's Artists Market on the rise: unprecedented momentum in 2024
The proactive acquisition strategies of Western museums, combined with the growing interest of private collectors, have propelled the market for female artists to become one of the most dynamic today. The number of sales in this category has doubled over the past five years and tripled over the past decade. Regardless of the artistic style or period, the prices for works by renowned female artists have seen a significant upward trend, driven by increasingly fierce competition.
In January, a "Self-Portrait in Traveling Costume" by the French portraitist Élisabeth Vigée-Lebrun (1755-1842) was auctioned for $3 million at Sotheby’s, exceeding its high estimate by threefold. This pastel not only set a new record for the artist in the "drawing" category but also positioned her work at a price level higher than that of her male counterpart, Maurice-Quentin de La Tour.
This result reflects the growing interest in the rare historical female painters. Élisabeth Louise Vigée-Lebrun, the official painter of Marie Antoinette, is one of the iconic figures of the 18th century, comparable to those whom the National Gallery of Art in Washington is actively seeking to add to its collections.
It is also noteworthy that Western museums are intensifying their efforts to acquire works by female artists, aware of their underrepresentation in their collections.
The March sales further confirmed this trend of reevaluating female artists. During the Modern and Contemporary art auctions in London, Sotheby’s reported that 60% of works by women exceeded their high estimates. For instance, Françoise Gilot, known not only for her relationship with Pablo Picasso but also for her skills as a painter and writer, saw her "Portrait of Geneviève" (1944) fetch $922,000, nearly four times its high estimate.
Other artists, such as Etel Adnan, Rebecca Warren, Agnes Martin, and Cecily Brown, also far exceeded expectations. Emerging talents are making their mark as well, with British artist Jadé Fadojutimi setting a world record in March with a piece sold for $1.98 million after six minutes of intense bidding. Several cultural institutions, eager to avoid past mistakes, have already included Fadojutimi's works in their permanent collections, making her the youngest artist to join the permanent collection of the Tate Modern in London.
The key trends observed in the previous year—scarcity of masterpieces, a surge in transactions, and the growing interest in female artists—have continued into the first half of 2024. In the coming months, the market could be significantly influenced by the auctioning of exceptional collections, similar to those of Paul Allen or Thomas and Doris Ammann, which generated $2 billion in 2022. Only the arrival of major works at auction could invigorate a market that remains tentative in the early part of 2024.
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